Verification & Transparency
Live vs backtest results
Both backtests and live records have a place, but they answer different questions. Confusing the two is one of the most common mistakes when evaluating a trading bot.
What each one tells you
- Backtest. How a strategy would have performed on historical data — a hypothesis.
- Live results. How it actually performs against a real broker, with real costs — the evidence.
Why live is more trustworthy
Live trading includes the frictions a backtest usually understates: slippage, latency, variable spread, and real liquidity. It also cannot be curve-fitted after the fact. See backtest vs live trading for the mechanics of why they diverge.
How to use both
- Use backtests to understand logic and stress-test ideas.
- Use verified live results to judge whether it actually works — ideally on a public Myfxbook account.
- Distrust a great backtest with no live record behind it.
The bottom line
When the two disagree, believe the live data. A modest, verified live track record beats a spectacular backtest every time — a principle at the heart of why public performance matters.
Continue research
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the difference between live and backtest results?
Backtest results are simulated on historical data, while live results come from real trades in real markets with actual spreads, slippage, latency, and liquidity. Live results reflect true performance.
Why do live results differ from backtests?
Live trading includes real-world costs and frictions — slippage, variable spreads, execution delays, and liquidity gaps — that backtests often underestimate or ignore, so live results are usually more conservative.
Which is more reliable, live or backtest results?
Live results are far more reliable because they cannot be over-optimized to fit history. Backtests are useful for evaluating logic, but verified live performance is the stronger evidence.
Can backtests predict live performance?
Backtests can suggest whether a strategy has potential, but they cannot reliably predict live results. A strategy that looks excellent in backtest can still underperform live if it was curve-fitted.
How big a gap between backtest and live is normal?
Some deterioration is normal due to real-world costs. A small, explainable gap is expected, but a large gap often signals over-optimization or unrealistic backtest assumptions.
Essential reading
Educational
Recommended
Important Disclaimer
This site is an independent research and review platform for educational purposes only.
Nothing on this website is financial advice. Trading involves risk, and performance varies by market conditions, strategy, and user decisions.